It’s been a month since I last covered gold in this blog so I thought I’d make an update on what I wrote back in January.  Here’s an excerpt from that January post:

Gold is testing the key zone of resistance at 1218.6 – 1231.1.  This zone of resistance, if overcome, would open the door for further upside and shift the larger bias to bullish.

Until and unless this key resistance zone is broken however, gold remains vulnerable to a resumption of the downtrend that kicked off at the beginning of October last year.

On any pullback, there is support established at 1171.1 – 1186.4.  While above this support zone, gold is well-positioned to continue to work at breaking resistance. 

As you can see below, gold prices did decline from the HVA (high-volume area) resistance zone as expected and then bounced from the HVA support zone (volume-at-price traders had both of these on their radar well in advance).

Since the test of HVA support, gold has broken above the zone of resistance, which now becomes support.  The next upside target is at 1306.  This makes current levels a buying opportunity, risking to below 1218 and targeting 1306.  Only a failure to hold 1218.6 would negate this outlook.

20170221_GC

i10 Research subscribers can view our research and current portfolios by logging into the Client Research Center via the Client Login tab in the upper right corner of our website.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including trials, service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 646.535.0369.

Counting Copper

February 14, 2017 by

Copper is pulling back from fresh 2017 highs.  The bias remains bullish and there is established HVA support (high-volume area support) at 2.6150 – 2.6700 (basis March) on this pullback.

As you’ll see from the accompanying chart, the late-2016 December lows and the ensuing 10% rally initiated from previous HVA support at 2.4485 – 2.5120.

At i10 Research, our rigorous, quantitative, volume-at-price approach consistently identifies these types of opportunistic buy and sell locations well in advance of price reaching them.

hgh7-20170214

i10 Research subscribers can view our research and current portfolios by logging into the Client Research Center via the Client Login tab in the upper right corner of our website.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including trials, service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 646.535.0369.

If you’ve missed any of the recent opportunities in the stock market, specifically the S&P 500, maybe you should consider taking a more quantitative approach.

Take a look at the shaded boxes that are encompassing the November low as well as the most recent pullback.

Utilizing our primary quantitative approach, each of these buying opportunities were clearly identified well in advance of price providing the chance to buy within those zones.

Our quantitative approach primarily utilizes volume-at-price data (which is the accumulation of time and sales data into histograms) to identify the specific price locations and zones that you see on the chart here (blue rectangles).

As price traded into the zone at 2085 – 2100 last November, our clients were fully aware and ready to take advantage of the opportunity at hand.

It may sound excessive but due to our publishing frequency and the different deliverables we provide to our clients, the buying opportunity at 2085 – 2100 had been communicated, without any deviation or change, more than 85 times to our clients.  So basically, in addition to the other things we were discussing over that time, this call was made more than 85 times in the 3 months prior to the opportunity arriving. (and it was a good one, no?)

At the time, in addition to that very specific zone having been identified far in advance, there were 4 additional, independent, real-time measures that supported the idea of a rally initiating exactly from that identified zone.

Now to be clear, when I say 4 additional independent measures what I’m absolutely NOT speaking about are indicators derived from price date or oscillators derived from price data.  (aka, technical analysis ‘tools’).

Indicators and oscillators derived from price data are NOT additional nor independent measures.  We already utilize price data as part of our time and sales volume data sets to create the volume-at-price histograms.

A price-based indicator, such as a moving average, is just an average of prices, not additional data, not independent.

An oscillator, such as a stochastic, is just a derivation of prices.  Not additional data and not independent.

A MACD is just a derivation of moving averages of prices.  See what I’m getting at?  Not additional data and not independent.  Making 1000 different manipulations and permutations of price data does not count as any additional measure, it’s still just a manipulated price data set.  And doing this, like what 99% of all ‘technical analysts’ do, does not provide any predictive edge whatsoever.

So, if you missed the +10% gain on this chart, or if you missed the +1.25% just recently, take a look at our work at i10 Research and give us a call about how we can help you.

20170207 spx

i10 Research subscribers can view our research and current portfolios by logging into the Client Research Center via the Client Login tab in the upper right corner of our website.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including trials, service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 646.535.0369.

Decision Time in Gold

January 25, 2017 by

Gold has been working steadily higher over the last month of trading.  Since late December, gold is up about $100/oz, nearly +10%.

Should you be buying gold?  Is this move just getting started?  Is it over?  Here’s how to tell…

Gold is testing the key zone of resistance at 1218.6 – 1231.1.  This zone of resistance, if overcome, would open the door for further upside and shift the larger bias to bullish.

Until and unless this key resistance zone is broken however, gold remains vulnerable to a resumption of the downtrend that kicked off at the beginning of October last year.

On any pullback, there is support established at 1171.1 – 1186.4.  While above this support zone, gold is well-positioned to continue to work at breaking resistance.

If this nearby support zone should fail, it would be a signal that the sellers are back in control and would suggest a retest of support around the December low at 1128.6 – 1144.4.

20170124 gc

i10 Research subscribers can view our research and current portfolios by logging into the Client Research Center via the Client Login tab in the upper right corner of our website.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including trials, service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 646.535.0369.

Who’s making money on this straight up move in beans?  Farmers.  And volume-at-price traders.

Here’s my analysis posted on January 4th and I’ve included a before/after chart picture here as well.

The test to the support zone at 988 – 997’4 provided an excellent limited-risk opportunity to get long beans.

After the initial rally response from that support zone, it took one last retest before it gained traction on the upside in a major way.

Beans are now up 75 cents from that long opportunity.  Not a bad harvest for a couple of weeks.

20170118_ZS

i10 Research subscribers can view our research and current portfolios by logging into the Client Research Center via the Client Login tab in the upper right corner of our website.

To non-subscribers:  Request more information about us, including trials, service and pricing options, by visiting our Contact Us page or by calling 646.535.0369.

Interest Rate Roadmap

January 11, 2017 by

After a post-election surge, interest rates have been steadily and orderly pulling back following the mid-December high at 2.62.  So why the pause in the rally?  Is it over?  Is it just beginning?

First off, the reason for the pause and pullback is due to rates running into the primary zone of overhead resistance at 2.579 – 2.748 (see chart).

You can see that this zone was established in late-2013 and early-2014, which was quite a long time ago.  The fact that this zone is still respected is a testament to the robustness of using volume-at-price profiles (and in this case it’s proxy, time-at-price profiles) to do this sort of analysis.

On this pullback, there is support established at 2.189 – 2.292 and the bias will remain bullish while above this zone.  The resistance zone at 2.579 – 2.748 must be overcome to open the door for another push higher toward 3.036.

If 2.189 were to be breached to the downside, the near-term bullish bias would be negated and further pullback toward 1.814 would become the new expectation.  While above 2.189 – 2.292 however, the bullish bias remains intact.

20170111 tnx

Soybeans Support

January 4, 2017 by

Except for a Christmas bounce, it’s been all downhill in soybeans lately.  Fortunately, things could be looking up very soon.

There’s HVA support (high-volume area support) at 988 – 997’4.  As you can see in the chart, the touch to the upper boundary of this HVA support zone sparked the Christmas bounce.  This same support zone is now being re-visited.

While this support zone remains intact, the soybean market remains in a position where we could see bulls step in and take advantage of a near-term buying opportunity.

On a rally, the resistance zone that begins at 1033’2 would mark the upside target for such a trade.

20170104 ZS

A Crude End to 2016

December 28, 2016 by

Crude oil is looking to finish 2016 on its highs for the year.  Here’s where it’s going in 2017 and the important guideposts to keep on your radar.

After a pullback into mid-November, crude has been marching higher and the bias remains firmly bullish.  There are supports established at 50.18 – 51.66 and 48.98 on any pullback and the bias will remain bullish while above these levels.

The next upside targets to look for as we head into 2017 are 56.50 and then 58.73 – 60.68.  Look for crude oil to continue to work its way higher on its march to these next higher targets.

20161228 cl

The US Dollar remains strong as we move to close the books on 2016.  The kickoff higher that began in October and continued through November, is now making new highs as we near the end of December.

The position of the US Dollar index is firmly bullish with supports established at 102.120 and at the high-volume area at 100.950 – 101.615 (see chart).  The trend will point higher and the position of the index will remain biased to the upside while above these levels.  Any pullback to test these levels of support should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Eventually this strong rally will give way to a large degree rotation or a deeper pullback but while above these well-established levels of support, it is wise to not try to anticipate when such a thing will occur and simply go with the large degree trend higher.

20161221 DX

Corn Market Breakpoints

December 15, 2016 by

Corn is preparing to make its next directional move after traversing the same price territory for the last two months.  So what’s the next move and when will it start?

The high-volume area support zone established over the month of September at 337’6 – 348’2 was tested and held in early October following the rally to begin the month.

Corn continued higher in October until reaching the high-volume area resistance that was established over the month of July at 362’4 – 370’6.  After two tests in October and a third in early November, corn pulled back to retest the HVA support at 337’6 – 348’2.

Corn regathered itself, again holding its September HVA support zone and has now returned to again test new HVA resistance at 361 – 366 within the original 362’4 – 370’6 zone.

A move above 370’6, which is the top of the HVA resistance zone that has held the market back since the first test in October, would establish a bullish bias and target a swift move to the upside targeting 387’4 initially with a higher target at 401’4.

Only a decline below 337’6 would tip the advantage to favor the bears and lower prices.

20161214 corn

Older Entries »